[POTN] 3.7 - Another Northern War...?

The disbanding of the majority of the Norwegian military, while greatly reducing Norwegian governmental expenses, inevitably brought much peril to the already fragile semi-independent nation in the meantime.

The Copenhagen administration, under King Frederik, was originally worried about Norway's potential inability to pay taxes with financial ruin. Without a functional Norwegian military, it meant that Frederik could practically threatened Norway, by the use of arms, into paying taxes, even with increased tax rates.

With the Danish economy also in ruins after the war with Sweden, Frederik would never miss such a precious opportunity to extract even more from the Norwegians. In early 1664, Frederik once again raised the tax rates slightly, effectively hindering Norwegian economic recovery.

Prince Christian and his government did issue repeated statements against the raised tax rates, but Frederik responded with simple military threats. With only volunteer units and militia, Norway was in no position to defend against a potential Danish invasion. Indeed, King Frederik was planning to hire German mercenaries with the gold subsidies from Paris should Norway refuse to pay due taxes. Those mercenaries, after invading Norway, would loot from the Norwegians and Frederik would no longer need to pay them anything. Prince Christian's government had no choice but to concede to King Frederik's demands in June 1664, severely reducing the pace of Norwegian economic recovery from the ruins of the war.

While Norway was no longer in a famine by 1664, the government still had no extra capital to rebuild the cities, towns, and villages damaged in the war with Sweden, especially in the Trøndelag region. Many in the North of Norway had no choice but to live in temporary shelter-homes for extended periods.

The Norwegians also barely had any money to rebuild the military, even as they began repaying their Danish debts more and more slowly and reluctantly. Most of the government's income would either go to the daily functions of the government, or straight to King Frederik's treasury in Copenhagen.

In Denmark, the economy did significantly improve with Frederik's taxes from Norway. That, coupled with the French subsidies, allowed him to lower tax rates in mainland Denmark, consolidating his support among Danish nobles and peasants alike. Thus, the loss of the war against Sweden turned out almost advantageous for Frederik by this point. He first blamed the loss on nobles and introduced an absolute monarchy, and then he led the Danish economy to recovery with Norwegian gold, earning himself love and respect from his Danish subjects.

Frederik's popularity across Denmark was at an all-time high, with many supporting him and a potential war of revenge against Sweden. Nonetheless, a war against Norway, a country many Danes saw as a brotherly state, was not popular, and thus Frederik did not wage any offensives against Norway just yet. Despite Christian's willingness, Frederik had also been uncooperative, refusing to meet Christian who suggested a meeting to sort out the taxation affairs. Christian's administration thus used this attitude as a propaganda, spreading the narrative that the King himself was sabotaging the Norwegian economy.

Nonetheless, the French subsidies that Frederik received were not entirely unconditional. Frederik was not only required to keep an naval presence in the Baltic against Sweden, but also to cooperate and attack Sweden if France decided the launch a proxy war against Stockholm. While old generals in Paris were largely against an unwarranted confrontation with Sweden, the Elector of Brandenburg had different thoughts. Seeing the absence of the Swedish King and the messy political environment in Stockholm, Friedrich Wilhelm had long been amassing his army, waiting for the right moment to attack Pomerania that he long dreamt of conquering.

Yet, the Elector knew very well that Brandenburg-Prussia had little chance to stand alone against the might of the Swedish Empire, and he did not really trust France to aid him if things went south. After all, Brandenburg itself was just an inland province still recovering from the ruins of the Thirty Years' War, after repeatedly damaged by different factions in the war.

The Duchy of Prussia, while not war-torn, had no land borders with Swedish territories. That meant that the Hohenzollerns would have to either go by the sea, or travel through Poland, if they wished to have Prussian soldiers fight against Sweden. As Brandenburg-Prussia had practically no meaningful naval forces against the Swedes, they would have to take the Polish route. Nonetheless, as Brandenburg-Prussia was a part of the anti-Polish coronation during the Deluge, they would almost certainly not be well received in Poland, and could face staunch opposition.

Thus, the Duchy of Prussia would largely be a liability, or a territory with limited usefulness at best, in a potential war against Sweden. That left the Elector with only the massive but rather sparsely populated farmlands of Brandenburg proper. By late 1664, Berlin had established stable communication with Copenhagen, aiming for organised actions in the event of a war. While Denmark was still functioning and only aimed for revenge against Sweden, it was an entirely different story for Brandenburg-Prussia.

Even if only parts of Pomerania were to become Hohenzollern-ruled, Brandenburg proper would obtain a very precious port in order to trade with the world, instead of depending on the goodwill and profits of other states like Mecklenburg or the Hanseatic cities. A victory in a war against Sweden would mean the complete resurgence of the Brandenburger economy, taking the state out of its ever-dwindling economy since the devastation in the Thirty Years' War.

It could also potentially bring an end to the Swedish hegemony in the Baltic since the 1650s, returning the Baltic into a free trade zone instead of an area with trade dominated and controlled by Sweden. With doubts concerning the loyalties of the French and the Dutch in case of a war, Friedrich Wilhelm began seeing Denmark as his closest ally. After all, a loss in a war against Sweden would be an existential threat to Denmark, who had absolutely no reason to betray Berlin for Sweden.

For Frederik, Brandenburg-Prussia was indeed also a great ally to hold the Swedes back in a war, diverting the strongest Swedish units to the Pomeranian front, thus allowing Denmark to potentially retake Scania, which Frederik dreamt of retaking every day. Frederik planned to utilise the remaining Danes in Scania, rallying them to his cause when the Danish attack starts. He believed that, with the Swedish oppression of the Danish-speaking population in the province, the vast majority of them would support a return of Danish authority.

To ensure the time for the Danes in Scania to revolt, Frederik must ensure that the strongest units of the Swedish military would be away from the Øresund. That would be where Brandenburg-Prussia came in handy - a Brandenburger declaration of war would force Stockholm to divert their best warriors to Pomerania across the Baltic. In February 1665, Denmark and Brandenburg-Prussia signed the Secret Accords of Odense. The Accords made sure that, if one is attacked by Sweden, the other would aid immediately and launch an offensive against the Swedes, regardless of whether French support is present.

The Norwegian government, meanwhile, was not even notified of the Accords. Prince Christian only learnt about the Danish-Brandenburger alliance after hearing about it from rumours. Bergen was extremely reluctant to engage in a new war against Sweden, seeing it as meaningless struggle against a much greater power. Still, they were very much aware that, if King Frederik entered into another conflict with Sweden, it was practically impossible for Norway to be spared from it.

With King Frederik's tendency of exploiting Norway clear to everyone, the Storting began discussing plans against Frederik dragging Norway into meaningless wars anytime. Many radical ideas were discussed, but were either unable to gather enough support or vetoed by Prince Christian. After all, Christian did not yet have any desire to provoke yet another potentially perilous conflict with Copenhagen, with the very limited military power Norway held.